1.1 Thawj Aluminium Ntau Lawm Sab Nraud Tuam Tshoj
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026, txawm hais tias muaj peev xwm tshiab thiab tso tawm kev nthuav dav hauv lwm thaj chaw txawv teb chaws, qhov kev nce no ua tsis tiav los cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam poob los ntawm kev muaj peev xwm txiav hauv Middle East, ua rau muaj kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws ntawm thawj txhuas. Nyob rau nruab nrab - mus rau - lig Lub Rau Hli, Tebchaws Meskas thiab Iran tau mus txog ib ntus détente, kev xa khoom los ntawm Strait of Hormuz rov pib dua, thiab txhuas smelters hauv Middle East tau pib ua haujlwm dua. Txawm li cas los xij, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev rov pib lub voj voog ntawm cov peev txheej tsim khoom, tag nrho cov khoom siv rov qab tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv tsis tu ncua thoob ntiaj teb.
Tshiab Peev Xwm Commissioning
Taijing Aluminium, kev sib koom ua lag luam ntawm Xinfa Group thiab Tsingshan Group ntawm Indonesia's Great Kijang Island, ua tiav lub zog- ntawm kev sim tsim tawm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Qhov project boasts ib lub xyoo thawj txhuas muaj peev xwm ntawm 600,000 tonnes, txais yuav 600 kA electrolytic hlwb. Nyob rau nruab nrab -Lub Tsib Hlis, Dak Nong thawj qhov project txhuas hauv Nyab Laj tau txais nws thawj lub zog raws li tau teem tseg. Tsim los nrog tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 450,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg los tsim hauv peb theem, nws theem I muaj peev xwm ntawm 150,000 tonnes ib xyoo yuav maj mam nce ntau lawm.
Peev Xwm Restarts
Hauv Tebchaws Europe, kev poob qis hauv cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab txhim kho kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, ua ke nrog cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws tshwm sim los ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw, tau ua rau tsoomfwv muab qhov tseem ceeb dua rau kev tsim khoom hauv tsev thiab tsis tu ncua txo kev cia siab rau kev xa khoom. Cov haujlwm tseem ceeb tau teev tseg raws li hauv qab no: (1) Century Aluminium tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm rov pib dua thib ob ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm nws cov Grundartangi aluminium smelter hauv Iceland, muaj peev xwm kwv yees li 210,000 tonnes, suav txog ob - feem peb ntawm cov nroj tsuag tsim muaj peev xwm. Tag nrho cov kev tsim khoom yuav tsum ua tiav thaum kawg Lub Xya Hli 2026, nqa cov nroj tsuag tag nrho rau 320,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg. Lub caij no, Century Aluminium restarted tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm nws Mt. Holly txhuas smelter nyob rau hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab mus txog tag nrho cov tsim los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm Q2, tsa nws muaj peev xwm mus rau 50,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg. (2) Alcoa rov qab muaj peev xwm ntawm nws San Ciprián txhuas smelter hauv Spain rau 205,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg (90% ntawm tag nrho nws cov peev xwm), ua tiav tag nrho cov khoom ntawm 228,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg los ntawm lub Rau Hli. (3) Thaum Lub Xya Hli 1, 2026, Hydro tau tshaj tawm tias nws cov Slovalco aluminium smelter tau ua tiav qhov kev pom zoo nrog tsoomfwv Slovak, nrog rau kev pib rov pib ua haujlwm rau Q4 2026 ntawm lub peev xwm kwv yees li 75,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg.
Muaj peev xwm kaw
Lub ntiaj teb thawj lub peev xwm txhuas tau pom pom pom pom kev sib cog lus hauv H1 2026, nrog rau kev ncua kev tsim khoom thiab txiav cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub Peb Hlis thiab Plaub Hlis. Ob lub ntsiab tseem ceeb ua rau muaj peev xwm txo qis: thawj zaug, nce US -Iran tensions thiab kaw ntawm Strait of Hormuz ua rau cov zis tawm ntse poob ntawm thawj qhov chaw aluminium hauv Middle East; Thib ob, cov nqi hluav taws xob raug quab yuam yuam qee cov txhuas smelters kom tsis txhob ua haujlwm. Cov smelters cuam tshuam muaj xws li: (1) Mozal aluminium smelter tau tso tseg kev tsim khoom thaum Lub Peb Hlis 16, 2026 vim muaj kev sib tham tsis sib haum xeeb txog kev cog lus fais fab, suav nrog txhua xyoo muaj peev xwm ntawm 600,000 tonnes. (2) Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 12, Qatalum (648,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg) tau tshaj tawm cov lus tshaj tawm hais tias kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv roj av yuav yuam kom lub smelter ua haujlwm ntawm 60% muaj peev xwm, uas sawv cev rau kev txiav tawm txhua xyoo ntawm kwv yees li 259,000 tonnes. (3) Nyob rau nruab nrab-Lub Peb Hlis, Alba tshaj tawm qhov kev ncua ntawm Cov Kab Ntau Lawm 1–3 txhawm rau txhim kho cov khoom lag luam raw khoom thaum muaj kev cuam tshuam kev thauj khoom hauv Strait of Hormuz. Qhov kev txav mus los txiav peev txheej los ntawm 19%, sib npaug li kwv yees li 308,000 tonnes hauv ib xyoos, tiv thaiv cov nroj tsuag tag nrho ntawm 1.62 lab tonnes ib xyoos twg. (4) Lub Plaub Hlis 3, EGA's Abu Dhabi aluminium smelter (1.5 lab tonnes ib xyoos twg) tau nkag mus rau tag nrho. Tag nrho rov pib dua ntawm thawj aluminium ntau lawm yuav siv sijhawm txog 12 lub hlis. (5) Lub Plaub Hlis 8, Arak Aluminium, Iran qhov thib ob - loj tshaj plaws txhuas smelter nrog ib xyoos twg muaj peev xwm ntawm 175,000 tonnes, ncua kev khiav hauj lwm tom qab US -Israeli airstrikes.
Daim duab 1-1 Qhov Nruab Nrab Nruab Nrab Nruab Nrab Txhua Hnub Txhuas Txhuas Tso Tawm Tawm Sab Nraud Suav
Source: IAB
Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm International Aluminium Institute (IAI), cov khoom lag luam txhuas cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis suav nrog Tuam Tshoj tag nrho 11.81 lab tonnes nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Tsib Hlis 2026, nqis 3.3% xyoo-rau- xyoo, nrog qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub tawm ntawm 78,000 tonnes. Antaike kev kwv yees hais tias txawv teb chaws thawj cov khoom lag luam txhuas hauv H1 2026 yuav ncav cuag 14.30 lab tonnes, ib xyoos -rau- xyoo poob ntawm 2.1%.
1.2 Thawj Aluminium Ntau Lawm hauv Suav teb
Tuam Tshoj tus thawj aluminium muaj peev xwm khaws cia ib qho kev nce siab nyob rau hauv H1 2026, txhawb nqa los ntawm peb txoj haujlwm loj ntxiv. Ua ntej, 350,000-tonne Phase II thawj aluminium project ntawm Huomei Hongjun Aluminium & Fais Fab ntawm Zhahanao'er tau pib ua haujlwm puv ntoob, ua ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab xyoo no. Thib ob, Xinjiang Tian Shan Txhuas ntxiv 200,000 tonnes ntawm kev muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo los ntawm kev rov ua dua tshiab. Cells tau ua kom muaj zog hauv cov khoom siv txij thaum lig 2025 thiab txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv H1 2026; qee cov hlwb electrolytic tau mus txog qhov kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov, thaum cov cell uas tseem tshuav rov qab yuav raug xa mus raws li tau teem tseg. Lub tuam txhab thawj cov khoom lag luam txhuas tau kwv yees ntawm 1.35 lab tonnes hauv 2026, nce los ntawm 160,000 tonnes piv rau 2025. Thib peb, Liaoning Zhongwang rov pib tsim nws cov khoom tsis muaj zog 300,000-tonne, xa ib qho txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, qee qhov kev txiav tawm kuj tshwm sim. Cov ntawv ceeb toom qhia tias muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm tsis raug cai hauv Guangxi tau raug kaw thaum lub sijhawm tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig hauv lub Tsib Hlis, ua rau muaj kev poob qis rau cov khoom lag luam hauv cheeb tsam.
Antaike cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli 2026, Tuam Tshoj tus tsim thawj txhuas muaj peev xwm sawv ntawm 45.17 lab tonnes hauv ib xyoos, nrog kev ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm ncav cuag 44.67 lab tonnes toj ib xyoo. Lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntaus kwv yees li 99% nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli, rov teeb tsa cov keeb kwm tshiab thiab 1 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus siab dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov zis, kev txhim kho tas mus li hauv cov tshuab electrolysis tau ua rau qee cov neeg tsim khoom los txhawb kev ua haujlwm los ntawm kev ua kom muaj zog ntawm tes tam sim no, tsim cov khoom tsim tawm. Txawm li cas los xij, kev tshawb fawb hauv cheeb tsam qhia tias cov txiaj ntsig zoo li no tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm qee lub tsev kawm txawv teb chaws. Tom qab kev ntsuam xyuas tag nrho ntawm ntau yam, Tuam Tshoj tus thawj txhuas cov khoom tsim tawm hauv H1 2026 kwv yees li ntawm 22.34 lab tonnes, nce 2.2% xyoo-rau- xyoo.
Daim duab 1-2 Kev hloov pauv hauv Tuam Tshoj Thawj Tswj Aluminium Peev Xwm hauv H1 2026
Source: Antaike
Tshaj li tag nrho cov peev txheej hloov pauv, kev tsim kho kev lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tau tswj hwm los ntawm kev hloov chaw hauv cheeb tsam thiab kev kho dua tshiab, nrog rau kev hloov kho txuas ntxiv mus rau kev lag luam layout thiab electrolytic cell specifications. Cov neeg tsim cai tswjfwm kuj tau tshaj tawm cov kev cai kom meej rau lub zog-txuag thiab carbon- txo cov khoom lag luam hauv kev lag luam. Thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2026, tsib lub hauv paus tswj hwm coj los ntawm National Development and Reform Commission tau tshaj tawmDaim Ntawv Ceeb Toom Txog Kev Tshaj Tawm Peb -Xyoo Kev Sib Tw rau Lub Zog-Txuag thiab Carbon-Txo Retrofits hauv Kev Lag Luam Tseem Ceeb(Document No. FGWH〔2026〕698). Lub voj voog tswj lub zog-txuag thiab qis- cov pa roj carbon hloov kho rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob aluminium, txhawb nqa cov thev naus laus zis thiab cov cuab yeej siv nrog rau cov tshiab ruaj khov- ntws insulated aluminium electrolytic hlwb, graphitized cathodes, siab - zoo anodes, thiab kaw cov roj siv hluav taws xob rau cov hlwb electrolytic. Loj - nplai electrolytic hlwb ntawm 500 kA thiab siab dua yog yuav tsum tau nrov, thaum lub zog- siv cov khoom siv xws li lub cev muaj zog, kiv cua, twj tso kua mis, dej twj tso kua mis, cua compressors thiab transformers yuav nrawm rau kev rov ua dua tshiab thiab kho dua tshiab. Cov txheej txheem rau kev rov ua kom cov cua sov kom zoo thiab kev siv cov cascade los ntawm cov pa roj flue yuav ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab qis -kub hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob yuav siv dav. Kev hloov kho kom nrawm yog yuav tsum tau ua rau prebaked anode aluminium electrolytic hlwb hauv qab 300 kA, ywj siab aluminium carbon tej yaam num uas muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 150,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg, thiab outdated inefficient tus kheej - muaj cov thee- tua hluav taws xob units.
Hais txog kev hloov layout, Weiqiao Group tau tsiv mus nyob ib ncig ntawm 100,000 tonnes ib xyoos twg ntawm lub peev xwm los ntawm Shandong mus rau Yunnan nyob rau hauv lub Tsib Hlis, ntxiv nthuav nws hydropower aluminium portfolio. Xinjiang Huazhang Aluminium thiab Wanji Aluminium (Xinjiang), hloov chaw los ntawm Henan, yog nyob rau hauv kev tsim kho thiab xav tias yuav ua kom tiav thiab commissioned nyob rau hauv lub xyoo. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev kho dua tshiab, ntau qhov dej num tau tso tawm cov peev txheej hloov pauv cov phiaj xwm rau kev rov ua dua tshiab hauv H1 2026: Qinghai West Hydropower Co., Ltd. (500,000 tpa, 312 × 600 kA hlwb), Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. (550,000 tpa, 342 × 600 kA hlwb), Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. Ltd. (115,000 tpa, 106 × 400 kA hlwb). Txoj kev mus rau cov hlwb loj dua electrolytic yog qhov tseem ceeb.
1.3 Cov Nqi Them Txhuas Txhuas Ntau Lawm hauv Suav Teb
Txij li thaum ntxov 2026, poob alumina thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv Tuam Tshoj tus nqi tsim khoom txhuas txhuas. Raws li Antaike kwv yees, qhov hnyav nruab nrab tag nrho -hauv se- suav nrog tus nqi ntawm thawj aluminium hauv Suav teb tau nce mus txog RMB 16,105 ib tonne nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli 2026, nqis 6.3% xyoo-rau- xyoo. Tus nqi sawv ntawm RMB 16,149 ib tonne nyob rau lub Rau Hli, poob 0.7% lub hli-ntawm- hli thiab 1.5% xyoo-rau- xyoo, thiab RMB 305 ib tonne qis dua thaum kawg -2025. Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev nce qib ntawm txhuas tus nqi, kev lag luam tau ua tiav cov txiaj ntsig zoo hauv keeb kwm. Qhov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab hauv H1 2026 tau mus txog RMB 8,106 ib tonne (tsis suav VAT thiab cov nyiaj tau los se; tib yam no tom qab), nce los ntawm RMB 4,976 ib tonne lossis 159.0% xyoo-ntawm- xyoo. Nyob rau lub Rau Hli, cov nqi txhuas tau thim rov qab, nyem cov nyiaj tau los rau RMB 7,885 ib tonne, ib hlis -on-hli poob ntawm RMB 334 ib tonne.
Table 1-1 Tuam Tshoj Tus Nqi Them Txhuas Txhuas Ntau Lawm thiab Cov Nyiaj Tau Los, H1 2026 (RMB/tonne)
Source: Antaike
Kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov nqi tseem ceeb qhia tau hais tias peb qhov khoom siv loj tshaj plaws rau cov khoom siv txhuas yog alumina, hluav taws xob thiab prebaked anodes, suav txog 33.6%, 34.5% thiab 16.8% ntawm tag nrho cov nqi - nyob rau hauv cov nqi feem nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Nrog rau cov nqi alumina poob, hluav taws xob tau dhau los ua tus nqi loj tshaj plaws. Piv nrog rau qhov kawg-2025, peb yam khoom tseem ceeb tau poob qis los ntawm 12.9%, 10.9% thiab 0.9% feem.
Daim duab 1-3 Lub Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab Txhua Tus Nqis Txhuas Txhuas Txhuas Txhuas, H1 2026
Source: Antaike
Tus nqi zog poobThaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, tus kheej- tsim hluav taws xob tau muab kwv yees li 54% ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev ua haujlwm thawj lub peev xwm txhuas, thaum daim phiaj hluav taws xob suav txog kwv yees li 44%. Hauv H1 2026, kev saib xyuas kev nyab xeeb thee tau nruj thoob plaws tebchaws. Cov thee loj- tsim cov cheeb tsam raug tshem tawm kev tsim khoom rau kev kho tom qab tsuas yog kev sib tsoo hauv Shanxi, txwv tsis pub cov khoom siv hluav taws xob loj hlob. Indonesia nruj me ntsis cov thee xa tawm quotas thiab cov txheej txheem tswj hwm; ua ke nrog kev nce nqi hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb uas tau tsav los ntawm Middle East geopolitics, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau poob qis xyoo -rau- xyoo. Lub caij no, kev nce nqi hluav taws xob tag nrho tau thawb cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua, nqa tus kheej - cov nqi hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob rau cov neeg tsim khoom txhuas. Txawm li cas los xij, txuas ntxiv nthuav dav ntawm cua thiab hnub ci teeb tsa muaj peev xwm nqa lub zog hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv dua tshiab, ib feem cuam tshuam cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua thiab ua rau tag nrho cov nqi hluav taws xob qis qis. Antaike cov txheeb cais qhia qhov hnyav nruab nrab ntawm tus kheej- tiam fais fab tariff sawv ntawm RMB 0.372 ib kWh thaum Lub Rau Hli 2026, nce RMB 0.001 ib kWh los ntawm qhov kawg -2025 thiab RMB 0.04 ib kWh xyoo-rau{27} xyoo. Daim phiaj siv hluav taws xob nruab nrab yog RMB 0.435 ib kWh, nqis RMB 0.045 ib kWh piv rau kawg -2025 thiab nce RMB 0.007 ib kWh xyoo-ntawm- xyoo. Qhov ntsuas qhov hnyav nruab nrab ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob tau nce mus txog RMB 0.403 ib kWh thaum Lub Rau Hli, RMB 0.02 ib kWh qis dua qhov kawg-2025. Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli, qhov hnyav nruab nrab ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob yog RMB 0.412 ib kWh, nqis RMB 0.002 ib kWh xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Daim duab 1-4 Lub Hwj Chim Tshwm Sim nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tus Thawj Aluminium Kev Lag Luam
Source: Antaike
Cov nqi qis dua AluminaThaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, lub ntiaj teb bauxite muab khoom seem txo cov nqi yuav khoom. Ua ke nrog kev xa khoom ntau dhau thiab cov khoom lag luam tsis tu ncua hauv cov khoom lag luam alumina, tus nqi txhawb rau alumina tsis muaj zog. Los ntawm lig Q1 txog Q2, qhov kaw ntawm Strait ntawm Hormuz thawb cov nqi roj av thiab cov nqi thauj khoom hauv hiav txwv nce siab, thaum kev lag luam kev cia siab ntawm nruj dua bauxite xa tawm los ntawm Guinea intensified. Bauxite cov nqi qis qis thiab rov qab los, ua rau muaj kev rov qab me ntsis hauv cov nqi alumina. Txawm li cas los xij, cov nqi alumina tseem qis dua xyoo - ntawm - xyoo rau thawj ib nrab xyoo. Tawm tsam qhov backdrop no, pem hauv ntej- hli alumina yav tom ntej daim ntawv cog lus tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv qis ntawm RMB 2,437 ib tonne, nqis 31.9% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj ntawm RMB 3,577 ib tonne pom nyob rau nruab nrab- rau- lig Lub Xya Hli 2025. Alumina cov nqi 2 tonne poob ntawm RMB 7 kawg-Lub Kaum Ob Hlis xyoo tas los mus rau qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm RMB 2,646 ib tonne thaum lub Ib Hlis Ntuj lig 2026. Raws li Antaike cov lus hais, qhov nruab nrab alumina qhov chaw tus nqi mus txog RMB 2,705 ib tonne nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli 2026, poob 21.8% xyoo-on{28} xyoo.
Oscillating Upward Anode NqiTsav los ntawm cov nqi raw khoom ntau dua rau kev tsim cov khoom siv anode, cov nqi hauv tsev prebaked anode nqes zuj zus nyob rau theem siab nrog tus nqi nce siab hauv xyoo 2026. Muab xam los ntawm Antaike cov lus hais, qhov nruab nrab prebaked anode tus nqi sawv ntawm RMB 5,611 ib tonne hauv H1 2026, nce RMB 711% ib tonne. xyoo - ntawm - xyoo.